Kajang State Assembly by-Election | Ten strategic moves by Pakatan Rakyat

Ten strategic moves by Pakatan Rakyat

January 30, 2014

FMT LETTER: From Dr Raken, via e-mail

An analysis of the Kajang by-election without fear or favour:

1 Khalid is a wonderful business man – a straight forward corporate figure. A hard core politician like Anwar in Selangor is a good strategic move in the wake of Barisan’s onslaught to take back Selangor at all cost.

2 Selangor is the gold mine state of Malaysia. Whoever rules Selangor, rules Malaysia. So changing strategies to ensure Pakatan’s rule is imperative.

3 Pakatan has to fortify its hold in Selangor to protect the minority in the wake of some desperate moves made by its opponents by stirring racial and religious issues

4 Internal issues within Pakatan must be resolved immediately. The decision for Anwar to be in Selangor will avert another Kedah episode

5 Penang is fine with Lim Guan Eng. Shifting Anwar from Penang to Selangor is a strategic move to fill the vacuum in Selangor.

6 Anwar is a veteran in politics with all the expertise and exposure and he knows the in-and-out of his opponents. His political acumen is imperative for balance of power in Selangor

7 DAP is in Penang. PAS is in Kelantan. PKR must be Selangor’s at all cost to serve the most demanding state in Malaysia.

8 If Penang, Kelantan and Selangor are ruled well and prudently, this is the testimony for its promotion to Putrajaya to play a role at the Federal level.

9 Selangor has the most number of informed decision voters in the country who vote based on facts and figures. Anwar’s presence in Selangor will ensure, governance, integrity and a continuous success story

10 Anwar as the coalition leader of the Pakatan needs a strong base from where he can operate. This is truly political strategy.

The writer is senior lecturer in Strategic Management for MBA programmes

‘Allah’ row a non-issue, look at bigger picture, say experts

The Malaysia Insider

BY LEE SHI-IAN

January 11, 2014

 

The Bible Society of Malaysia's office in Petaling Jaya was raided on January 2, sparking anger among Christians. – The Malaysian Insider pic, January 11, 2014.

A fatwa or edict issued by sultans is only applicable to Muslims and, therefore, cannot be enforced against those of other faiths, says constitutional law expert Dr Aziz Bari.

Speaking at a forum entitled "Allah issue and seizure of Bibles: Between the law and religious sensitivities", organised by PAS last night, Aziz questioned the timing of the Selangor Islamic Religious Department’s (Jais) raid on the Bible Society of Malaysia (BSM) last week.

Saying that the Selangor Non-Muslim Religions (Control of Propagation among Muslims) Enactment 1988 had been in force for 25 years, Aziz asked: "Why choose to enforce it now? Everyone is waiting for the Federal Court to decide on the ‘Allah’ ruling.

"Isn't it a better and wiser decision to let the issue cool down instead of turning up the heat? Or is this a calculated and deliberate act?"

Aziz also questioned the reason police had accompanied the Jais team when they raided the BSM office in Damansara Kim on January 2.

"This is a selective operation, similar to the allegations made against PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu that he was a Shia follower.”

He said although Muslims made up the majority of the Malaysian population, they appeared to be portrayed as being under threat.

"What sort of logic is this? This never happened several decades ago when Muslims had yet to become the majority in the country," he added.

Picking up the same thread, PAS Parit Buntar MP Datuk Dr Mujahid Yusof Rawa told the forum that 1.7 million Christian worshipers in the country could not make Malaysia a Christian country.

"There are only 1.7 million Christians in Malaysia while 55% of the 28 million population are Muslims," Mujahid said.

"If Christians are so capable of turning Malaysia into a Christian country, then I must learn this secret from them," he said, prompting laughter from some 200 people at the forum held at the Kuala Lumpur-Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall.

The third speaker, National Evangelical Christian Fellowship secretary-general Eugene Yapp, said Christians did not want to fight with anyone or to take anything away from others.

"We just want to be left alone and in peace to practise our religion.

"We use the word ‘Allah’ because historically, it predates Islam. The English version of the Bible is actually a translation.

"The original scriptures were not in English but in Hebrew and Greek. Hence, when it was brought to Malaysia, God was translated as ‘Allah’," Yapp said.

He pointed out that the Anglican Church in Sarawak went back to the 19th century.

"These traditions, including referring to God as ‘Allah’, have been passed down from generation to generation, from father to son."

He said he once asked a Bumiputera Christian if he could stop referring to God as "Allah".

The man replied: “Imagine if you have been alive for 40 years and one day, your hands or legs are cut, how would you feel?

"How can you suddenly tell me that whatever I have been practising in my faith is irrelevant? Who are you to tell me this?"

Yapp said Christians in Malaysia were angry and disturbed over the “Allah” issue, including the Jais raid.

Aziz concurred, saying it was a Muslim's duty to protect his friends when they were being persecuted and oppressed.

"There have been accusations in Selangor that certain Muslim individuals are helping and defending Christians. This is the duty of a Muslim.

"The rights of Christians are not being respected and a negative image of Malaysia is being portrayed on the world stage.

"Islam is being seen as oppressing the rights of other religions," he said, adding the “Allah” issue was a minor one.

"Why won’t the government focus on the big picture, on corruption? Cost of living? Price hikes?"

Aziz drew more laughter when he joked that "extremists" such as PAS were organising these forums while Umno was lodging police reports and holding protests outside churches.

Mujahid said Muslims had to live in reality.

"The Quran teaches us about reality. What right do I have to tell Christians what they can or cannot believe about their faith?

"The opposite applies as well. Can a Christian come and tell Muslims what they can or cannot do when practising Islam?

"I have entered a church. Does this mean I am no longer a Muslim but a Christian now?" Mujahid asked, drawing laughter from the floor.

"You can laugh about it, I can laugh about it, but some parties do not treat it as a laughing matter."  – January 11, 2014.

Is Pakistan Islamic? But they CELEBRATE the Bible & here in M'sia, we CONFISCATE IT!

Islam is the official religion of Pakistan and Malaysia but both have contrasting attitudes toward the Bible.

Just three days after Christmas, Pakistan celebrated 150 years of the Bible Society there by issuing a commemorative postage stamp while in Malaysia, JAIS, the Selangor Islamic agency, stormed into the Bible Society two days into the new year. They confiscated over 300 local language Bibles, while police arrested two of its officials and later released them on bail.

The raid was condemned by both Christians and non-Christians including Muslims except for the extreme right wing within Umno and their sympathisers.

Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy while Pakistan is an Islamic Republic. Islam is the official religion in both countries.

Originally, when the constitution of the then Malaya was drafted by a five-man commission - with members from Britain, Australia, India, Pakistan and chaired by Lord William Reid - before independence was granted by Britain in 1957, it did not specify any official religion for the state.

This move was supported by the rulers of the nine Malay states, who felt that it was sufficient that Islam was the official religion of each of their individual states. However, Justice Hakim Abdul Hamid of Pakistan came out strongly in favour of making Islam the official religion, and as a result the Reid Commission in its final draft specified Islam as the official religion of Malaya.

Secular state with Islam as the official religion

With the formation of Malaysia in 1963, the provision for Islam as religion of the new federation was retained although Sabah and Sarawak objected strenuously to it. They were persuaded to sign the Malaysia Agreement only on the assurance that Islam would not be the official religion in the two states. But this was not to be for long.

Unhappiness remained and Tunku Abdul Rahman, the first PM of Malaysia, on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 9 Feb 1983, had to reiterate that Malaysia must continue as a secular state with Islam as the official religion. He was supported by Hussein Onn, (the third PM), who believed that the country can still be functional as a secular state with Islam as the official religion.

Then Dr M stirred up the Islamic state notion

All was well until on 29th September 2001, when during his opening address to the Gerakan Party’s 30th national delegates conference, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamed announced:

"Umno wishes to state loudly that Malaysia is an Islamic country. This is based on the opinion of ulamaks who had clarified what constituted as Islamic country."

Through it all, the various attempted infusion of Islamic values since then began to take its toll, the latest being JAIS’ raid on the Bible Society.

Times also changing in Pakistan

All is not well either in Pakistan as Akbar Ahmed, the Ibn Khaldun chair of Islamic Studies at American University in Washington, DC found out when he returned after half a century to his old college, Forman Christian College (now a university) to receive an honorary doctorate. Forman is Pakistan’s leading Christian educational institution. Like the Bible Society of Pakistan, it is now celebrating its 150th anniversary. Only 600 of its 6,000 students are Christian.

"Like many non-Christian Pakistanis, I owed my education to Christian teachers, both at Forman and at my previous school, Burn Hall in Abbottabad, which was run by Roman Catholic priests. Once there, I found myself transported back to one of the happiest periods of my life. It was a different Pakistan and it was a time of hope. Christians were very much part of the fabric of the nation," recalled Akbar, former Pakistani High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, in an opinion piece he wrote in the New York Times over Christmas.

"Times have changed. With increasing frequency, Christians have been attacked and their churches vandalized."

He said, "Many Pakistanis are unaware of the role Christians have played in the nation’s history. Although the Christian population is barely three million, or 1.6 percent of the population--as compared with 180 million Muslims (more than 95 percent)--Christians have had a considerable impact, especially in education."

He added that many of Pakistan’s most prominent leaders--including the current prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, the assassinated prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, and former President Pervez Musharraf--went to Christian schools. Christians also educated Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who founded Pakistan in 1947. Under Pakistan’s Constitution, Christians were guaranteed equal rights.

"The targeting of Christians comes amid a widespread breakdown of public order," he noted.

Contribution of the Christians

The contribution of Christians to education in Malaysia stretches back as far as Christian efforts in Pakistan if not longer. Prime Minister Najib Razak is but one such beneficiary of Christian schools. Times have changed indeed.

Malaysia is fast sliding down the incendiary path of self-destruction. The JAIS raid has stoked the flames further. All is not well; not only for Christians but for every Malaysian. Our redemption lies in going back to what the framers of our constitution had originally intended. - mysinchew

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=212121:is-pakistan-islamic?-but-they-celebrate-the-bible--here-in-msia-we-confiscate-it&Itemid=2#ixzz2pzGPXT7p
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I did not know he had married again, ex-wife of Taib Mahmud’s son tells court

BY JENNIFER GOMEZ

January 09, 2014
Latest Update: January 10, 2014 08:30 am

 

 

'Mostly he would come into the house, watch TV, see his son and take an afternoon nap', says Shahnaz of her former husband, Mahmud Abu Bekir. - The Malaysian Insider pic, January 9, 2014.

The former wife of the Sarawak chief minister's son, Datuk Seri Mahmud Abu Bekir Abdul Taib, told the court today that she did not know that the woman he had brought to his sister's wedding in 1999 was his wife.

Shahnaz A. Majid also testified she had accompanied her son to meet Mahmud Abu Bekir and the Australian woman, Louise Aida Hiley,  two to three years ago.

"At the time of my sister-in-law's wedding, I did not know he was married to her," she said during cross-examination at the Syariah High Court today.

Shahnaz, the sister of popular singer Datuk Sheila Majid, also told the court that Mahmud Abu Bekir stopped giving her financial support after August 2011.

She said earlier today that he had initially given her RM7,000 a month since they started living separately in 2000, and the amount was increased to RM10,000 in 2007.

"But after August 2011, there was not even RM1 from him for me or my son until now," she said.

"He paid for our holiday in Damascus and Turkey but that was just once in the last 10 years," she added.

Shahnaz also revealed that since they started living separately, Mahmud Abu Bekir would make occasional visits to see their son, which was once every two weeks or once a month.

"Mostly he would come into the house, watch TV, see his son and take an afternoon nap," she said.

Shahnaz said that as the director of Sarawak Securities between 1993 and 2001, she was initially paid a salary of RM7,000 per month, adding that during the period of 1994/1995, when the securities market was doing well, they were given a year's bonus across the board.

According to Shahnaz after the securities firm obtained a license to trade in the stock market in 1997, her salary was increased to RM10,000 per month. But by then, bonus payout averaged two to three months.

Shahnaz is seeking some RM400 million as divorce settlement, including matrimonial property and “mutaah” (Islamic conciliatory payment).

She is also asking for half the assets owned by Mahmud Abu Bekir, including seven luxury cars, thousands of hectares of land in Sarawak, homes in countries abroad and shares in about 15 companies.

Shahnaz, and Mahmud Abu Bekir married in January 1992 and have a 20-year-old son, Raden Murya. Mahmud Abu Bekir filed for divorce in May 2011.

The divorce settlement proceedings had exposed the purported wealth of the family of the Sarawak Chief Minister, Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud.

Shahnaz, 50,  had previously testified that Mahmud Abu Bekir had a son with an Australian woman and later married a Russian woman.

She also told the court that the Sarawak Chief Minister's son has assets worth more than RM1 billion in Malaysia.

Under re-examination by her counsel Akbardin Abdul Kader, Shahnaz said her ex-husband did not ask for her permission when he wanted to take another wife.

She added that to her knowledge, he had also not made any application to the courts in Sarawak or in Peninsular Malaysia to have a polygamous relationship.

She also said that she never had sex with Mahmud Abu Bekir after they began living separately.

Shahnaz further told the court that the three cars in her possession were from the company that she and her ex-husband jointly owned.

"The Jeep can't be used since three years ago, my son drives the BMW X3 and I drive the Mercedes S320," she said, adding that the Mercedes was probably only worth RM50,000 now.

During cross-examination by Mahmud Abu Bekir's counsel Saadiah Din, Shahnaz was asked about whether she knew about the cars she had alleged that her ex-husband owned, including an Audi, Ferrari, Bentley, Lamborghini and an Alphard.

Dr Rafie Mohd Shafie appeared with Akbardin while Saadiah was assisted by Datuk Zainul Rijal Abu Bakar.

Hearing before Judge Muhamad Abdul Karim Wahab continues on January 22. – January 9, 2014.

BIGGEST JOKE! If Allah is exclusive for the Malays, can Bahasa Melayu be national?

Written by Wong Chin Huat

Malaysia is more powerful than any other country on earth. Elsewhere, governments seek the protection of Allah. Here, the government seeks to protect Allah.

And the Christmas season is the time we see this protectionism and pattern warfare again. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak “the Moderate” has called for a truce on this matter.

Since the Court of Appeal has ruled in favour of Najib’s government, Najib’s truce call is practically to ask the Catholic Church – and the Christian community at large – to give up their right to use the word Allah.

On the eve of Christmas, The Malaysian Chinese Muslim Association – whose leaders include the renowned “internet researcher” Ridhuan Tee – asked the Church point blank to drop their appeal.

Well, Najib who went to a Catholic school (St John’s Institution in Kuala Lumpur) for nine years but Alhamduillah never got confused, has already offered a moderate solution: “1 Malaysia, 2 Allahs, Endless possibilities”.

Guess what's the elephant in the room 

Without any legal basis but purely at the government’s mercy, Christians can actually use the word Allah in Sabah and Sarawak. They only need to check the word Allah into their luggage when their flight enters Malaya’s airspace.

A survey by Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMCEDEL) suggested that 77% of the Malays accept that solution. Only 11% of the Malay respondents agree that Allah is not a pattented word for Muslims only.

In response to Najib’s call, outgoing Catholic Archbishop Tan Sri Murphy Pakiam has asked Najib to drop the Allah ban. He prays that Najib will be a uniting statesman rather than "a bickering politician".

The faithful would say, all things are possible in God. And this is supposed to be the season of faith, if you have not acquired it earlier in the year.

But until the miracle happens, may I suggest both sides of the divide to stare at the elephant in the room?

The battle is not about the word Allah per se. It is about the use of Bahasa Melayu in faith-related context for any non-Islamic purpose.

The logic is actually simple – if you are a Malayan, you should understand it without any difficulty – since Malays are Muslim by constitutional definition, surely their language has to be a Muslim language. Now, if you are not out there to convert the Malays into other faiths, why must you use Bahasa Melayu as the preaching language?

Simple logic

Let me offer two evidences of this elephant.

First, besides Allah, many other words have also been made Islam-exclusive by various states.

Even In Sabah, 32 words including “Nabi” and “Rasul” have been banned from non-Muslim use by a fatwa issued by the Mufti Kerajaan Sabah on June 1, 2003 (No. 1,039) under Section 35 of the Enakmen Pentadbiran Undang-Undang Islam 1992 (Enakmen No. 13 tahun 1992), according to lawyer-activist Peter Marajin.

Now, what is left in an Abrahamic faith without the word “prophet”?

Second, the Indonesian version of The Origin of Species has been banned in Malaysia since 2006. Why is the English original still legally available?

Clearly, the purpose is to protect those who can read only Bahasa Melayu from the deviant teaching of Charles Darwin. Too bad for those who read English, since their faith cannot be protected from possible contamination by the evolutionists.

By the same logic, you will get into trouble if you are going to publish and circulate any religious texts for Buddhism or Hinduism in Malay. Never mind these texts are readily available in Indonesia. (One can only hope we won’t have a travel ban on Indonesia someday).

I did not make up this elephant from imagination or by logical deduction.

Here are the words of Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz, a senior minister who has served under three prime ministers.

“Among other things, it is interpreted that if you translate any religious books into Malay language, then that is seen as an act to propagate religions other than Islam to those who profess the Muslim faith,” the then de facto law minister told Sarawak-based Borneo Post in an exclusive interview in 2010.

Instead of giving empty talk on religious harmony, Najib should just save Malaysians’ time by answering these questions:

First, if Bahasa Melayu is exclusive for Islam, can it still be the national language?

Second, if yes, is the political agenda of promoting Bahasa Melayu as the national language to eventually make every Malaysian national a Muslim?

For Allah’s sake, that’s where we need his honest answers. Does a man who received nine years of English-medium education in a Catholic school – despite having a nationalist minister father - actually believe in Bahasa Melayu as the national language?  - TMI

Dr Wong Chin Huat is a political scientist at Penang Institute

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=206122:biggest-joke-if-allah-is-exclusive-for-the-malays-can-bahasa-melayu-be-national?&Itemid=2#ixzz2ol8MlsAw

UMNO divides Malaysia

by Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, Universiti Sains Malaysia

 

Malaysia is a divided nation.The grim reality of elusive unity, plagued by ethnocentric and ethno-religious divisions, is underlined by the continual existence of fault lines that social anthropologist Shamsul A. B. calls ‘axes of contradictions’. The stubborn presence of such social cleavages, after half a century of nationhood, raises the issue of the efficacy of integrative policies pursued by successive Barisan Nasional (BN: National Front) governments.

Momentarily eclipsed by the modernisation ethos of Mahathir’s Vision 2020 and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s Islam Hadhari (civilisational Islam), the ‘national unity’ agenda has made a comeback during Najib Razak’s era since 2009 in the form of his ‘One Malaysia’ (1Malaysia) scheme.

It has not been smooth sailing for Najib. It is understandably difficult for him to admit that the multiple polarisation of Malaysian society was effected at the hands of none other than his colleagues and former bosses in the ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), let alone for him to exorcise completely UMNO-linked ghosts of social fragmentation.

Rising politically via UMNO and its entrenched system of vested interests, Najib’s political survival depends on UMNO, whose apparent improvement in the 13th General Elections (GE13) of May 2013 has lulled its leaders and members alike into believing that continual UMNO hegemony could be best brought about by appealing to Malay ethnocentric sentiments.

Najib in all probability realises that it was UMNO internal politics rather than opposition attacks that had led to the undoing of his predecessor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, whose administration was brutally cut short following BN’s post-GE12 imbroglio in 2008. Abdullah’s ouster meant that his pluralist vision of a unified nation driven by enlightened interpretations of religion (as encapsulated in his conception of Islam Hadhari) never tasted success.

While some figures within the UMNO ruling establishment lament with other concerned parties at the growing divide within the Malaysian populace, Najib’s inability to stem the tide of UMNO grassroots’ embrace of ethnic exclusivism was made all too clear during the recent UMNO General Assembly (5–8 December 2013). The Assembly was preceded by Najib’s launching in September 2013 of a slew of Bumiputera economic empowerment programmes, which some have opined as the outcome of sustained pressure from the UMNO rank and file, besides being a commensurate reward for the Malays’ support for BN-UMNO in GE13.

The Assembly proper was laced with vociferous statements that make a mockery of Najib’s One Malaysia vision. Delegates openly called for, among other things, the replacement of One Malaysia with ‘One Malay’, the denial of Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M: 1Malaysia People’s Assistance Funds) cash entitlements to opposition party supporters, and the re-orientation of national economic policies such as those pertaining to government-linked companies to the advantage of the Malay community.

Reacting to allegations that UMNO’s voices on the ground were dangerously treading on ethnocentrism, Najib meekly denied that UMNO had degenerated into an overtly racist party. The need for such a denial itself is indicative of the insular trajectory that the UMNO grassroots are taking, even while Najib ostensibly calls for Malaysians to become more globalised. Clearly, after four years at the helm of UMNO, BN and the nation, all of Najib’s expletives on One Malaysia have failed to strike chords even among UMNO’s own members, some of whom are unfazed at being labeled ‘racists’ so long as what they perceive as Malay rights are legally protected.

If Najib cannot put even his own UMNO house in order, what hope does he have of repairing the country? Not surprisingly, the UMNO-led BN’s capacity and willingness in healing Malaysia’s societal fragmentation has been earnestly questioned by informed observers.

Ironically, the utopia that UMNO has in mind is not even Malay-centric, such that Najib’s protestations against UMNO’s alleged racist strand is, taken at face value, tenable. Exclusion from the UMNO-approved body politic is not based on racial affiliation per se but rather on a skewed (mis)understanding of what constitutes being Muslim and Malay. A Malay-Muslim who chooses not to be part of this entity lays himself vulnerable, in UMNO’s eyes, to accusations of disloyalty and even to stripping of citizenship — a call often heard in the past few years.

Although Najib has been strongly urging Malay-Muslims to embrace moderation in their understanding and practice of Islam, it is UMNO’s grassroots who have been enthusiastically imbibing Islamist conservatism to the detriment of harmonious ethno-religious relations.

In the President’s closing speech, exhorting UMNO members to reclaim popular Islamic ground, Najib unabashedly claimed that it was UMNO who forked out funds to build mosques and suraus (prayer houses), only to see them later taken over by anti-UMNO elements. From the top to bottom of UMNO’s hierarchy, there seems to prevail a widespread sense of exclusive entitlement to the nation’s coffers and assets.

As greed multiplies, corruption and ill-gotten gains continue to mar Malaysia’s economy. Massive sums of money are unlawfully siphoned out of the country year in and year out, contributing to the downward rating of Malaysia’s creditworthiness. If all groups are treated as national stakeholders who deserve to be rewarded for hard work irrespective of political and ethno-religious affiliations, and readily accept precepts of One Malaysia out of sincere patriotism, one wonders whether the need exists at all to transfer wealth to safe havens abroad. Surely something is wrong somewhere with Najib’s whole national set-up, of which One Malaysia purportedly serves as an important pillar but looks more like a spent force today.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid is Associate Professor and Chairman of Political Science at the School of Distance Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia.

This article is a part of an EAF special feature series on 2013 in review and the year ahead.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/12/25/umno-divides-malaysia/#more-39345

The Future of East Asia: Four Risks to Long-Term Stability

by Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, JCIE

Earlier this year, I wrote about the opportunity that the ascent to power of a cadre of leaders around the region—Shinzo Abe in Japan, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang in China, and Park Geun-hye in South Korea—presented for a reset of relations among East Asian countries. To achieve a reset, countries in the region need to overcome their confrontational postures. But the opportunity for a reset among the new leaders has been squandered. Rather than utilizing their honeymoon periods to move regional relations in a positive direction, confrontational postures have become even more deeply entrenched.

This situation presents a significant risk not just to the short-term stability of East Asia, where miscalculations can lead to violent conflict, but also to the medium to long-term cooperative efforts that are needed to ensure that the evolution of regional order is locked into a peaceful and stable trajectory.

 Now it is clear that the years leading up to 2020 will be key for shaping the future of the region. This is when Japan is set to host the Olympic Games in Tokyo and when China has set for itself the target of doubling its 2010 GDP and per capita income for both rural and urban residents. In particular, four main risks demand our attention: the regional policies of the United States and China, the nexus that has developed in the region between domestic politics and foreign policy, the rising tide of nationalism, and North Korea.

American and Chinese Regional Approaches

 The regional policies of China and the United States (including US-Japan alliance coordination) will have long-term ramifications dictating the way in which competition is managed and cooperation is deepened on shared interests.

 For the last two decades, the strategy espoused by Deng Xiaoping—for China to keep a low profile (tao guang yang hui) in international affairs—has been a key guiding principle of Chinese foreign policy. However, around 2010, just before it overtook Japan as the world's second largest economy, China appeared to disregard Deng's dictate in favor of a more confident, assertive approach.

This was prominently displayed at the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting in Hanoi that year as China attempted to keep territorial disputes in the South China Sea off the agenda. Ongoing tensions with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, the banning of fish imports from Norway in 2010 as retribution for awarding Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo the Nobel Peace Prize, the blocking of banana imports from the Philippines in 2012 as punishment over the Scarborough Shoal dispute, and most recently China's abrupt declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, which overlaps with Japan's own ADIZ and covers the Senkaku Islands, are also indicative of this trend.

 The United States should respond appropriately in order to deter aggressive and unilateral behavior, but it should do this while engaging and not containing China. This is further complicated by the fact that the United States must figure out how to rearrange its military posture as it seeks to extract itself from Afghanistan and Iraq and reduce its defense spending. To this end, the United States has declared its "pivot" to Asia—which it has since renamed a "rebalancing" so as to avoid any perception of containment—and joined the East Asia Summit.

 From a Japanese perspective, however, there is concern that a significant gap in US and Japanese thinking may emerge regarding the best approach to China. Recently the United States has been distracted by domestic political gridlock. Additionally, US National Security Advisor Susan Rice, in a November 20 speech at Georgetown University, referred to "operationaliz(ing) a new model of major power relations" with China, which has been misinterpreted in the Japanese media as US accession to the G2 concept. This has sparked concern that the United States may agree to China's own definitions of Chinese "core" interests and it may become too accommodating toward China in the future.

The recent statements by Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel affirming that the Senkaku Islands are covered under the US-Japan Security Treaty and voicing deep concern regarding China's announcement of an ADIZ in the East China Sea, as well as the dispatch of B-52 bombers to the ADIZ, have made some progress toward assuaging Japanese concerns. But it is crucial that when the United States expands its cooperation with China, as it rightly must do, it conduct US-Japan alliance consultations ahead of time to prevent misunderstandings and ensure that new modes of cooperation are compatible with alliance structures.

 The Domestic Politics–Foreign Policy Nexus

 The trend of domestic politics undermining bilateral cooperation and becoming increasingly irreconcilable with regional goals has become a risk to the medium and long-term stability of East Asia.

 In the United States, the polarization of domestic politics has manifested itself in US foreign policy in decidedly negative ways. The culture of filibustering and the gridlock surrounding Obamacare, the debt ceiling debate, and budget deliberations, which prevented President Obama from attending the APEC meetings and East Asia Summit in Indonesia and Brunei in October, have undermined the credibility of US leadership in the region. Moreover, political deadlock seems to be contributing to the decline in public support for President Obama.

 Despite the reforms that were pledged at the Central Committee's Third Plenum in November, China still faces an array of domestic political challenges including rapidly growing income inequality, low living standards among the estimated 260 million rural migrant workers, widespread corruption, food safety issues, air pollution, the de-leveraging of the financial sector, and the lack of structural reform to shift to sustainable growth.

The failure to address these domestic political challenges has the potential to seriously derail the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Under this scenario there is an increased risk that Beijing could be tempted to become adventurous in its foreign policy in order to divert attention from its domestic governance shortcomings, focus public frustrations on an external enemy, and thereby achieve domestic cohesion.

 In Japan, the economic situation appears to be improving with the initial successes of Abenomics. However, the risk now is that while the first two arrows (aggressive monetary policy and flexible fiscal spending) have hit the mark, the follow-through on the third arrow of growth strategy, which needs to have the greatest impact if Abenomics is to be successful in the long term, has been underwhelming. While Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has been relatively pragmatic until now, an economic setback could tempt him to push conservative and nationalistic policies, which would further worsen Japan's already tense bilateral relations with China and South Korea.

In South Korea, the constitutional court ruled that the denial of South Korean victims' ability to pursue compensation for damages suffered during Japanese colonial rule was a violation of human rights and unconstitutional. Even though this court only has domestic jurisdiction, the ruling is in conflict with the overall thrust of South Korean foreign policy and the 1965 Japan-ROK diplomatic normalization agreement. Under that treaty, Japan and South Korea settled all legal claims between the two countries and Japan provided South Korea with US$500 million in economic assistance. Thus this domestic action strikes at the very underpinnings of the Japan-ROK bilateral relationship and has raised tensions unnecessarily.

 The Rise of Nationalism

 Also, nationalism has been on the rise around Northeast Asia, and its growing spillover into policymaking in the region is compounding the challenge of reconciling the domestic politics–foreign policy nexus.

China's national narrative, as seen through a CCP lens, emphasizes the role of the Communist Party in overcoming suffering at the hands of Japan's military during the Pacific War. As such, China's period of national humiliation and anti-Japanese sentiment lingers at the forefront of the Chinese national consciousness. Now that China has risen to become the second biggest economy—and the second-largest defense spender—in the world, it is starting to regain its national confidence.

As part of the internal debate in China, questions are now being raised about the long-term relevance of Deng's low-key approach, and pockets of conservative nationalists on one side appear to be in favor of jettisoning the principle once China is firmly situated as a major power. Given this situation, greater efforts are needed to guard against unilateral changes to the status quo and to bring China into the fold as a responsible regional stakeholder and as a partner of the United States and Japan.

The optimism surrounding the amazing speed with which Japan rose from the ashes of defeat of World War Two, and rebuilt itself as an economic powerhouse, has turned to frustration. In the decades since its asset price bubble burst in the early 1990s, economic growth plateaued and Japan failed to take decisive action to revitalize its economy. Japan's demographic challenges have also exacerbated the sense of frustration. As such, public opinion in Japan has gradually become more questioning about Japan's postwar pacifist posture, and the rise of China and the threat posed by North Korea have become easy targets for the venting of frustrations. Recent polling shows that 90 percent of the Japanese public have negative feelings toward China and vice versa.

Meanwhile, South Korea's history as a country caught at a geopolitical crossroads between China, Russia, and Japan has fostered an exceptionally strong sense of national identity. South Korea has gone on to achieve remarkable economic growth, become an OECD member, and undergo a stunning process of democratization. But its continued focus on history issues and the wrongs that Japan committed in the first half of the 20th century, in a manner that inhibits present-day cooperation, reflects a highly volatile national consciousness. This trend has even gained strength under President Park Geun-hye, who much to Japan's dismay and against normal diplomatic protocol, has criticized Japan in third countries, rather than bring her complaints directly to Japan in a bilateral summit.

The narrative that is increasingly shaping Northeast Asian countries' national identities is problematic given the highly insular mentality it feeds and the antagonistic postures it encourages. Greater efforts are needed to promote national narratives within the broader framework of regional cooperation and give focus to the shared peace and prosperity and intertwined destiny of the region.

North Korea

The situation in North Korea, in terms of both its domestic politics and external relations, also presents a significant risk to the future of East Asian regional stability. Since Kim Jong-un took over power from his father two years ago, Korea watchers have intently looked for signs to gauge the extent to which Kim Jong-un has consolidated power. The canny efforts of Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung in creating an intentionally opaque political system that stamps out expressions of criticism against the regime and prevents them from ever becoming public make the situation tremendously difficult to judge from the outside.

However, while Kim Jong-un has been dubbed Supreme Leader, he does not appear to wield power in as outright a manner as his father or grandfather. Moreover, recent South Korean intelligence reports of Jang Song-thaek—Kim Jong-un's uncle and the vice-chairman of the National Defence Commission—being dismissed from his posts, as well as reports of numerous purges of high-ranking Korean People's Army personnel, suggest that Kim Jong-un's transition may not have been as smooth as surface-level indicators would have us believe. So while a grassroots movement against the government is still extremely unlikely, the need for Kim Jong-un to keep the military on his side and the risk of a backlash from disgruntled purged former generals and their supporters remains.

 It is clear that North Korea wants dialogue with the United States, but the two sides disagree on preconditions to be satisfied before any meeting can take place. This is a result of the United States, Japan, and South Korea feeling cheated in past denuclearization negotiations. Thus they want North Korea to demonstrate that it is serious this time around, and they also desire assurances from China that it will give its full backing and cooperation to any deal. China's unique position as North Korea's only de facto backer means Chinese support is crucial to ensure any future potential agreement is implementable in reality.

Additionally, the situation in the Middle East—and getting a nuclear deal with Iran right—is critical to the North Korean situation. A successful Iran deal will show North Korea, which is wary of how Libya was steamrolled after giving up its nuclear program, that a denuclearization deal can lead to a win-win situation for all parties. At the same time, focusing excessively on the Middle East and neglecting North Korea would be a mistake. As unpalatable as negotiations with North Korea may seem, strategic patience is not a realistic alternative as it just gives North Korea more time to refine its nuclear development. Moreover, in the absence of negotiations, North Korea is likely to begin the cycle of military provocations again, including through further missile or nuclear tests or via stealth attacks utilizing its asymmetrical advantage along the contested Northern Limit Line that demarcates the two countries' western maritime border.

We have already missed one golden opportunity, but if the confrontational postures that have emerged in the region become entrenched, there is the risk that the future regional order may be derailed. Over the coming years leading up to 2020, there is a need for increased efforts to convince the respective publics in East Asian countries of the importance of regional cooperation and for intensive discussion between leaders for the mutual promotion of brave leadership that does not succumb to the temptation of short-term domestic political gains at the expense of long-term regional cooperation.

Policymakers must be more conscious of the medium to long-term evolution of regional order and focus regional cooperation in order to overcome nationalism, defang domestic political dynamics that undermine bilateral cooperation, and pursue domestic objectives that are compatible with regional cooperation and the goal of shared peace, prosperity, and stability in East Asia.

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Hitoshi Tanaka is a senior fellow at JCIE and chairman of the Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute, Ltd. He previously served as Japan's Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs.

http://www.jcie.or.jp/insights/8-4.html

Three things we learned from the Allah case

BY THE MALAYSIAN INSIDER
October 14, 2013

Muslim groups outside the court building Putrajaya today. The Malaysian Insider pic by Nazir Sufari, October 14, 2013.So the Court of Appeal has ruled that the Catholic Church cannot use the word Allah in its weekly publication, Herald. Understandably, there is widespread disappointment, even anger among Christians, especially those in East Malaysia who have used Allah in Christian prayers and worship services for more than 100 years. Yes, far longer than the birth of this nation or for that matter, the age of the chief protagonist, Umno.

This case has been an eye-opener and a learning experience for many.

Lesson Number 1:

Political stability counts for little if all it does is provide cover for the wicked to trample on the Constitution time and time again like a dry leaf.

Lawyers and commentators are stunned that the Court of Appeal basically junked the constitutional guarantees of freedom of religion, preferring instead some nebulous concept of confusion and stability and harmony in Malaysia.

But let us be fair to the three judges: they are only following precedent. Every time, the courts have been asked to intervene in a matter with some political importance, the Constitution has been nudged aside conveniently. It happened during the power grab in Perak and it will keep on happening as long as a significant number of Malaysians still believe that "political stability and harmony" ala Barisan Nasional (BN) is worth preserving.

And here is the irony: a large segment of East Malaysians, including Christians, voted for BN on May 5 on the basis of securing another five years of "political stability". Political stability in BN speak means total subjugation of all institutions in the country. So think about this next time you enter the polling booth.

Lesson Number 2:

Never, never, never trust a politician bearing gifts before an election. Remember the last Sarawak state election where there was palpable fear that BN could lose a bunch of seats, even possibly two-thirds control of the state assembly. There was panic and desperation in the ranks of BN leaders and Najib Razak approved a 10-point plan aimed at resolving a knot of issues with Christians, including allowing the use of the word Allah in Malay-language bibles

Nothing was too much for BN because the coalition needed the Christian vote. Idris Jala was trotted out and all sorts of promises were made.

Question: Has anyone heard from Idris on the Allah saga since then?

Question only for Christians BN ministers and MPs: Does political survival trump everything, including religious practices?

It is not too late for Idris and his Christian friends in government to do the right thing. They should tender their resignation tonight for misleading their fellow Christian brethren. Remember, beware politicians bearing gifts before an election.

Lesson Number 3:

When all hell breaks loose in Malaysia, you can always count on the conscience of Umno to speak up. I am referring to Ibrahim Ali.

Notice how the leader of all Malaysians goes AWOL every time something major happens. But not Ibrahim. Outside the court today, he could not decide whether he was a peacemaker or a stoker of trouble.

One minute, he was calling Christians his brothers and the next he was warning them not to cause any more trouble. The Mara graduate even got ahead of himself at one point, even talking about how the appellate court's decision was consistent with the Constitution.

See, that is what happens when someone without a legal background is appointed defacto Law Minister, he actually starts believing he knows something about the law. Since Malaysians have a 100-day memory, Ibrahim was for a short period the defacto Law Minister of Malaysia, appointed by Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Still, beggars cannot be choosers and since the president of Umno only speaks outside Malaysia, Ibrahim is these days the voice and conscience of Umno.

If he sounds like a bully, it is because that is what Umno has become. If he sounds irrational and illogical in equal parts, it is because that is what Umno has become. - October 14, 2013.

UMNO Party Elections: Accommodating 'Sugar Daddy' Najib

by Dr. Bridget Welsh@http://www.malaysiakini.com

COMMENT The UMNO party elections last weekend and this Saturday will decide the leaders for the country, well at least until GE14. UMNO party elections have traditionally been the venue to set the course for Malaysia's future and the decisions this month are equally significance.

The two leadership positions - President and Deputy President - have been decided as a result of months of deal-making and accommodation on the part of Prime Minister Najib Razak. He effectively avoided a challenge and sweetened the deal by offering the Bumiputera Economic Empowerment (BEE), an  unashamedly UMNO contract-oriented affirmative action policy.

Every other contest - from youth and women's wings to division chiefs - was up for grabs. Last weekend saw the election of Najib's allies to the Wanita, Youth and Puteri wings. These leaders have at best a mixed record in their positions, with leaders such as Shahrizat Abdul Jalil openly tainted.

The run-up to the polls has been disheartening - full of racial diatribes, policy reversals on issues of reform and void of meaningful engagement with the real issues facing Malaysia. Generous views excuse the actions as electioneering, while those more critical harden their disdain over a party that they perceive has moved from statesmanship to sink-the-ship.

How can we understand why UMNO is moving in a direction so far away from its statesman history? Will there be any leaders elected that the more than the 30 percent who voted for UMNO respect? Is there any hope of reform from within? What helps us understand the outcome of the elections?

Simplistically, analysts point to the role of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, positioning himself as a behind-the-scenes challenger to Najib. They paint the victories last weekend as wins for Najib and victory of 'liberals', missing many underlying dynamics in the party.

This election is much more than the product of Najib versus Mahathir as it involves psychology, financial interests and personal ties.

UMNO's reverse psyche

UMNO lives in its own world, a world that is closely knit together in its own fabric and colours. While it co-exists with others, UMNO members (often like the Opposition as well) speak to one another and reinforce their own world view of contemporary Malaysia. They are a family, often tied together with close personal links through marriage and school networks, especially at the elite levels.

There are now multiple generations of intertwined family networks that play out during the party polls. Elite families have become deeply entrenched across generations. Even as the number of delegates has reached 145,000, the bonds between UMNO members run deep - from the Biro Tatanegara (BTN) training to the shared experiences in a particular UMNO wing and also in business as partners and competitors.

In this UMNO family dynamic, those who attack its members are the enemy, and those under attack are heroes. The greater the criticism of a particular minister from outside UMNO, the higher the status of the individual within UMNO. This works in reverse to normal logic, where more attacks weakens a candidate.

As criticism is piled on UMNO leaders Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (right) and Ali Rustam, for example, their odds to win a vice-presidency have increased. The same could be said for UMNO Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, whose criticism in the run-up to polls only boosted his victory.

Those attacked are the heroes of the party, even when they are acting in manners that most observers would potentially see as illogical, unethical, dangerous and even comical in a tragic sort of way.

The creation of heroes within UMNO reflects the contemporary psyche of the party, which is premised on defending the Malay community from attack. Umno has built its foundation on fear and insecurity in its ranks, especially under the leadership of Mahathir.

Thus it is not a surprise when it acts in such a pattern by stoking fear and harping on the failures of the Malay community. Little has centred on the achievements and the successes of Malays, which deserve attention. Even less has centred on confidence and community among Malays, all elements that should be valued and appreciated.

The forces of negativity overshadow the positive messages in the contemporary UMNO psyche. This negativity is reinforced by the reality that UMNO does not have the support of the majority of Malaysians, its reputation is among the lowest of all the political parties nationally, and despite its efforts in GE13 it did not gain a larger share of the popular vote.

Yet, how they view the last GE is conflicted and also a reverse to general logic. Rather than seeing the weaknesses in support and the lack of legitimacy of their party, UMNO members see GE13 as their victory; they no longer need non-Malay parties to hold power and their share of the seats is larger. Some even go as far to suggest that they have 'bested' the Chinese - characterising this community as the enemy.

These outlooks are rooted in their own UMNO logic, a view of the world that is in denial of the decaying base of support for UMNO and a party in deep trouble. For the UMNO family - all is okay, or at least portrayed as such.

Accommodating 'Sugar Daddy' Najib

The party's outlooks are reinforced by interests. Most people join Umno for the financial benefits of being in the party. This differs from the ideological pull of recruitment of the past. Now even if you are concerned with Malay rights, there are alternatives to joining Umno, such as Perkasa. Umno members go where the money is, and the person who holds the money is the premier.

After pouring out funds pre-GE13, Najib is now perceived himself as the country's biggest 'sugar daddy'. He has openly made it clear that loyalty is expected for rewards to be allocated with slogans such as 'you help me, I help you' and some perceive that he has gone as far as to punish those who do not support him with remarks such as the 'Chinese tsunami.'

If you want sugar then you are expected to be sweet - or rather sweet to Najib and people who are seen to have his favour. In this case, it is not about 'bees to the honey' but the honey of the BEE.

It is thus not a surprise that his allies have won so far and are favoured to win in the upcoming Vce-President and Supreme Council elections this weekend. The dynamic is such that UMNO members want the financial rewards. With a big pot of possible contracts on offer, it is not in the interest of those in the system to rock the boat.

What has enhanced the power of Najib and the incumbents in general is the change in the electoral system to more delegates. Judging by the number of complaints from last weekend, money politics continues to be prominent and the advantage lies with the multi-million war chests of the incumbents. Those in the middle or less well-off are being squeezed out in the direct payoffs.

There is also a more ‘democratising' element in the campaign. In earlier UMNO polls, targeted financial rewards would be primarily spent to woo the chosen delegates. Now money politics has partially moved away from the direct payments to more mass dinners and shared rewards, at least on the part of those who lack the comparative resources to compete with the incumbent war chests.

For many in the contest, especially fresh faces, it is just too expensive to pay off everyone. This has significantly weakened the power of warlords in the party at the state levels and non-incumbent contenders, heightening the position of those already in office, the centre and Najib's influence.

Democratising the party elections has ironically strengthened the power of the status quo and the existing hierarchy. The end result is that more people circle around the promise of rewards from the centre and those in position, especially the sugar daddy.

Powerful Godfathers

A third factor involves history and former leaders. While Umno members have a tradition of changing loyalties to accommodate the situation of the present rather than the past, as happened in 1998-99 and is happening now, the past still plays a role in shaping outcomes. Considerable power rests with the godfathers, who mobilise their loyalists and whose members are loyal to them for putting them into positions of power.

Mahathir is the ever powerful don, who has branded the party in his racial outlook and legacy of money politics. In every state, he effectively played divide and rule to maintain his position. Yet, his direct hold on the party has waned with 10 years out of office and the slow regeneration that is happening within Umno.

Despite his stature, Mahathir was clearly the loser in last weekend's results. He tapped into an old family battle between Sanusi Junid and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in backing the challenger to Abdullah's son-in-law Khairy, Akhramsyah Sanusi, who was soundly defeated.

Another possible loss is also on the cards. His son appears not to even have the support of a majority of delegates in his own state of Kedah, as many see Mukhriz Mahathir's rise as premature and view his record in the party not in fitting with the credentials of a vice-presidency as he has not served in senior party leadership positions or government before GE13.

The campaign is still ongoing and tight UMNO polls such as the VP race usually come down to the last 24 hours, and to the flow of ringgit noted above. Mahathir will have to play his last cards to secure his son in power, or face the reality of his declining influence. Ironically, Mahathir faces the challenge of the legacy he left behind - money politics.

Many analysts do not appreciate the role of another don, Abdullah Badawi. A large share of the current delegates are more beholden to Abdullah rather than Mahathir himself. Even as Abdullah's reputation within UMNO is mixed, with him receiving much of the blame for the loss of the party's position and the 2008 election results, those in the leadership positions remain quietly loyal to Abdullah. They remember who ousted whom from office.

Najib's success can be seen as a product of the decision to ally with Abdullah's people in his cabinet selection and in the run-up to the party polls. The reality is that the Abdullah factor weakens those seen as close to Mahathir and his allies. This Najib-Abdullah alliance is targeted to offset any possible challenge to the existing leadership and consolidate Najib's position within the party.

Its the status quo

The outcome in UMNO polls has to be understood within these lens of the party reverse psychology, financial interests and allies with powerful ever-present godfathers of the past.

The end result, however, is that UMNO does not necessarily produce the caliber of leadership that Malaysians deserve, as the sources for new blood, outside of the elite and favoured allies, is minimal. The status quo appears to be reigning.

Sadly, concerns about character and corruption persist. Any belief that reform from within the party is evaporating, if it is even being considered at all. Additional democratising measures within the party polls have not to date transformed the leadership slate, but consolidated those in power.

The younger generation within UMNO is being encouraged to accept the standard rules of the game rather than reform them. It is important to appreciate that none of the major contenders for senior positions within Umno is projecting a genuine message of reform or engaging in a practice of reform, as seen with the persistent issues of money

While the results of the key competitive races will come in next week, the lessons from the UMNO polls so far is that dysfunctionality is now the norm, as the interests of family have been imposed on the country.

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DR BRIDGET WELSH is Associate Professor of Political  Science at Singapore Management University. Bridget can be reached at bwelsh@smu.edu.sg.